Astronomy and Geophysics, Vol. 44, No. 5, Pages 20-22, October 2003

Solar activity levels in 2100

M. A. Clilverd1, E. Clarke2, H. Rishbeth3, T.D.G. Clark2, Th.Ulich4

1Physical Sciences Division, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, U.K.
2Global Seismology and Geomagnetism Group, British Geological Survey, Edinburgh, U.K.
3Dept of Physics and Astronomy, University of Southampton, Southampton, U.K.
4Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory, Sodankylä, Finland.


We consider the likely levels of solar activity in 2100 by analysing the previous history of long-term solar and geomagnetic activity indices. We make use of superposed periods of similar variations in atmospheric cosmogenic radiocarbon that have occurred during the last 11 000 years, as derived from various proxies such as tree rings. This leads us to conclude that solar activity is peaking at about the present epoch, and we expect solar activity in 2100 to resemble that in 1900 when a small minimum in solar activity took place, rather than increasing as has occurred in the last 100 years. The occurrence of major geomagnetic storms will decline to about one-third of the present level.

© 2003 by the Royal Astronomical Society, U.K.

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To cite this article: Clilverd, Mark A, Clarke, Ellen, Rishbeth, Henry, Clark, Toby D G & Ulich, Thomas (2003) Solar activity levels in 2100. Astronomy & Geophysics 44 (5), 5.20-5.22. doi: 10.1046/j.1468-4004.2003.44520.x